S&P500 bottom for 1/27/12?

If you're new here, you may want to subscribe to my RSS feed. Thanks for visiting!

Looks like the S&P500 wants to possibly create a bottom here on the 5 minute chart.

SPY ETF 1/27/12 mid day

We keep making lower lows on SPY ETF 5 minute intra-day chart. Looks like we may test the last low around $130.

The three moving average are all now downward pointing and in the right order. The slower (200) is first with the second being the 50 and the fastest (20).

Stock Market January 27, 2012

The SPY ETF closed down significantly but not at its lows for the day. The 20 period moving average penetrated the 200 period moving average generating a bearish indication.

The 50 period moving average did not penetrate the 200 moving average. This would increase the bearish sentiment if this happens today and based on the futures this morning, we may see it real soon.

 

Markets – Intraday – 01/26/12

Looking at the S&P500 on an intra-day 5 minute candlestick chart, I will sell SPXU (currently long) if the 5 minute chart shows a low and a subsequent higher low.

 

Market Analysis 10/09/11 - unitedfinancialplanner.com

The market indexes had another tough week last week.  Listening to the news, both political and business, nationally and internationally can make the market direction difficult to predict.

Monthly Chart of the S&P 500

Looking at the monthly S&P500 chart filters out some of the noise and the direction becomes much clearer.

1. It is clear that we had two prior highs in 2000 and 2007 and the most recent high in 2011.
2. It is clear that we are moving is a general downward direction with 750 as a target price range.
3. The closing price of the S&P500 has already crossed the 21 and 50 moving average.
4. The 21 period moving average has turned down while the 50 and 200 continue to in their upward trend
5. The index is at the 200 moving average and moving through this is a pyschological resistance.  Movement below this could signal a strong continued move to the downside is in store for the market.

Weekly Chart of the S&P 500

The weekly chart does dispute the monthly chart or provide any additional insight at this time. 

The chart is resisting at the 200 period average on this chart.

A slight move downward this week will turn all three moving average in a downward and negative trend.

Daily Chart of the S&P 500

 The daily chart of the S&P 500 shows a clear downward channel.  The close on Friday marks the high of the channel and a normal action now is one of the following:

• Continue to move up and break out of the downward channel
• Move down with the bottom resistance line as the short term target.

A downward channel is a bullish stock formation and is frequently resolved to the down side.

Summary of the S&P 500 Index

The long term diection of the index based on the weekly and monthly is down.

The daily chart has been on a short term up trend for a few days and has reached the upper channel of resistance in the overall downward channel.

Lets see what happens in the market today.  Please give us your comments.

S&P500 Breakout of Previous Gap Down - August 24 - unitedfinancialplanner.com

The 15 minute chart on the SPY shows a break out from the previous high and looks like it wants to “fill the gap” that was created on August 18 2011.

The next resistance is 119 for SPY.

The price is also crossing the intraday 200 day moving average, another bullish sign.

Keep stops tight and remember, we are in a market that still have a longer term bearish technical bias.

S&P500 Breaks Out of Intraday Descending Channel - unitedfinancialplanner.com

The S&P500 just broke out of its intra-day 15 minute chart descending channel.

The faster moving averages also crossed and are pointing upward.

This may be a short term move - so keep tight stops.

Remember, the current bias of the market is still downward.

Technical Analysis of the Market - August 22 2011 unitedfinancialplanner.com

Today was a small up day for three major US Stock Market indexes.

The upward movement did not break out of the intra-day 15 minute chart of the SPY.

It looks like we may come closer to testing the recent lows.

Need to see the SPY break out on the upside by coming out of the descending channel.  A breakout to the downside would require the S&P to make a new low.

Lets see what this week brings.  Share your thoughts.

Technical Analysis S&P500 August 22 2011 unitedfinancialplanner.com

The recent chart action on the S&P500 is very similar to the chart action on the weekly chart back in 2008.

The similarities include:

• Come off a a reasonably long bull run
• Penetrated the 200 day moving average
• Action on above average volume

The lessons we should learn from 2008 is:

• Market traded in a horizontal channel for about 2 months before going lower
• Never penetrated the 50 DMA while in the channel
• The price drop after going below the horizontal channel was much larger than the one that brought us to the channel.

Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P500 we can learn more:

• The drop in 2008 took us back to where the S&P started the bull run in 2003
• The bull run started in April 2003 at $84 and topped in October 2007, four and a half year and, at $152 - almost doubling.
• The bull market ended in April of 2009 - one and a half years to wipe out 4 1/2 years gains.

On a positive note

• we are currently above the 200 DMA and it could provide some much needed resistance.
• If we resist the 200 DMA on the monthly chart, we could be off the the races on the upside.
• In 2008 we already had the lower moving averages sloping downward.  Currently the three moving average are in bull order.  The slower on the bottom of the stack and the slower on the top.

The index is truly at a tipping point.  Strictly looking at the charts one would have to conclude that we have some downside left to come.

The channel in 2008 traded between $125 and $143, a 14% move.  Currently we don’t a clear channel defined yet.  The recent lows of 110 on the S&P  have seem to hold.  So this may be our bottom for the time being.

The current state of the index as show in the 15 minute chart would indicate that the recent low of August 9 is still in place but could be challenged.  A sniping short term buying opportunity may occur when the index moves above the descending channel and/or the intraday moving average cross and move up.

Lets see what this week brings.  Share your comments.

Market Direction - Reversal Likely - July 8 2011

The major indexes all opened down at the open in response to the poor jobs report.

Technically, the indexes are setting up for possibly 3 options as far as candlesticks go.

 The first option is to maintain the current lows or go lower and this would indicate a short term reversal.

The second option would be that the bulls fight back and at the end of the day close higher.  After eights days up and today being a Friday, chances are not strong that this could happen.

The third option is that the bulls fight back but still end up closing lower.  This candlestick would look like a hammer and is a bearish indicator.